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Abridger's Preface


	This document has been prepared especially for the entertainment
and mild edification of humans of a literary culture.  It is derived
from Appendix 345 of "Current doctrine on the history of cultures of
self-directed semi-intelligent sentient beings" version dated 2749.63425.
Preparation involved condensation by a factor of 1,000,000, translation
from logic to prose Englishl, removal of all mathematical material, and
an hundred to one selection bias in favor of narrative over theory.

	This is version B.LOTR of the story.  Version A is condensed
by a further factor of three and version C is extended by a factor of 
three.  Version D is extended about 50% with theoretical material, and
version E has sufficient class I mathematics to enable a reader to
determine in most cases whether the outcome of a situation is predictable
from the data available and to do level I predictions.

	Because of the widespread popularity of the translated Middle Earth
document "Lord of the Rings", versions assuming acquaintance with that
document are available.  The present version refers to that document but
doesn't assume that the reader remembers it well.
The present narrative refers almost entirely to events subsequent to those
discussed in that narrative.


Introduction


	The history of the rise of the hobbits of middle earth is worth
reading for two reasons.  In the first place, it provides an understanding
of the limitations of the known laws of history in their ability to
predict events.  Many of the most important of its events depended critically
on events at the noise level of the theory amplified by magnifying circumstances.

	Secondly, many of these critical events involved the performance of
individuals at or near the limits of their goal-seeking ability, and such
events make particularly good entertainment for humans who like to imagine
themselves in circumstances in which their abilities and decisions play a
critical role.

	This version assumes that the reader has read the "Lord of the Rings",
abbreviated LOTR.  This document, a translation of part of the
religious book of a certain sect of men, has to be understood properly
if it is not to be misleading or irritating.  In general, its biases come
from the views of this sect which are man-centeredness and condescension to
the other speaking peoples, opposition to the political and technological
rise of the hobbits in the fourth age....
Specific errors of fact or interpretation will be mentioned where they
become relevant.

	The laws of history of populations of self-directed semi-intelligent
sentient beings are now rather well understood.  Usually, the development of
their societies over times of a few tens or hundreds of generations
can be predicted from measurements of a few hundred parameters averaged over
areas and identified sub-populations.  However, these same laws tell us that
situations can occur in which the course of major events depends critically
on single individuals and single events in their lives.  In such cases, precise
prediction is often impossible in so-called magnifying circumstances where
events unpredictable for quantum mechanical reasons have macroscopic effects.
Even when the magnification is not that great, prediction may require class A
data gathering equipment capable of recording the values of 10↑18 selected
parameters.  This inability to predict can extend to such major parameters
as the survival or extinction of a population.  In such cases, the theory
becomes more complicated, because it is necessary to identify the critical
events and to follow out the consequences of different outcomes of these
events.

	The rise to prominence of the hobbits of middle earth is a very
instructive case, because it depended on a sequence of thirty-seven
semi-unpredictable individual events over a hundred year period.  No less
than fourteen hobbits, four men, and two orcs played critical roles in
these developments.  On the other hand, except for the critical events,
the laws of history unfolded in a singularly clear and comprehensible way
that does not involve too much detail for an unaided human to understand.

	At the beginning of the fourth age of middle earth, the hobbits were
a minor people.  They were too small to fight effectively with hand-held
weapons with the larger men, elves, dwarves, and orcs.  Their culture was
derivative from that of men and elves.  They were pacific and unadventurous,
and had little knowledge of events beyond the borders of the Shire.  They had
been protected from the forces of Sauron by Gandalf's manipulations and
by Aragorn's rangers, but had been easily dominated by Saruman until the
return of their hero Frodo who was the first of their number to ascend to
level two consciousness.

	On the other hand, in certain ways the hobbits were more advanced
than the other peoples of middle earth, and this relative advancement played
an important role in their subsequent rise to prominence.  The following
features should be noted:

	1. The hobbit economy was based on a densely settled agricultural
area.  We may contrast this with the nomadic agriculture of the Rohirrim
and the less intensive agriculture of Gondor.

	2. Land was individually held and could be transferred by will or
by sale.  In Gondor, land was held by the government and effective control
was transferred by bureaucratic and feudal processes.

	3. The Shire had a minimal government, and bureaucracy was not the
road to prestige and success that it was in Gondor.  The opportunities
for material success were quite limited, but in so far as they existed, they
required successful management of farms or small shops.

	4. The hobbits produced some products for the market such as pipeweed
and beer.